BTC bulls get 'biggest signal' — 5 Things to know in Bitcoin this week

Bitcoin (BTC) launches into US CPI week with new multimonth highs as traders dig in for volatility.

• BTC price action is giving increasingly bullish signals, joined by a key cross on the weekly MACD indicator.

• The weekly close fell just short of expectations, raising doubts over whether price discovery will return in the immediate future.

• CPI and PPI headline the week’s US macro data drops, but markets are all about the US-China trade deal and its implications.

• Bitcoin supply in loss drops below 2% in a rare test of hodlers’ staying power.

• Despite the gains, crypto market sentiment remains cool amid a lack of mainstream interest.

Bitcoin MACD cross copies October 2024

Bitcoin managed to preserve its highest levels since January around the weekly close as bulls battle resistance below all-time highs.

Volatility was visible over the weekend thanks to BTC/USD staying sensitive to developments around US trade tariffs.

On the hourly chart, these manifested as snap moves up and down before a broad sideways trend continued, resulting in several “long wick” candles. 

That pattern continued into the week’s first Wall Street open, with Bitcoin hitting new highs of $105,706 on Bitstamp, per data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView.

“Price action was making it seem like something big was coming. Any tiny dip was getting scooped up instantly and price started to move ~1 hour prior to the announcement,” popular trader Daan Crypto Trades wrote about the tariffs phenomenon in part of a post on X. 

“We're seeing quite a lot of ‘aware’ price action precede big announcements lately. The insider/leaking is real and it's used to trade our markets. Keep in mind, seeing this is such a big one including two major countries, it could be anyone anywhere.”

Fellow trader James Wynn continued by forecasting additional volatility to come.

“It’s about to get seriously volatile for $BTC. Sharp wicks down, sharp wicks up,” part of his own X post stated.

An accompanying chart showed exchange order book liquidity from monitoring resource CoinGlass. To the upside, $106,000 was the key area to break through on low timeframes. 

Others pointed to a bullish cross on the moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) indicator, which on weekly timeframes provided a key upside impetus.

“Probably the biggest signal you can get at the moment,” popular trader Moustache summarized to X followers, noting that the last such cross was in October 2024.

As Cointelegraph reported, MACD had previously offered mixed signals, with daily performance giving traders pause for thought.

Bitcoin bulls narrowly miss key weekly target

Despite hitting its highest levels in three-and-a-half months after the weekly close, Bitcoin failed to flip a key support line that would secure a fresh breakout.

The weekly candle closed at around $104,100 — a stone’s throw from what analysis previously described as the ticket to price discovery.

Updating X followers on the topic, popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital confirmed a rejection at $104,500.

“Going forward, it'll be worth watching for Bitcoin to form Lower Lows on the price action and Higher Lows on the RSI for a Bullish Divergence to develop,” he concluded.

Before the close, BTC/USD had given strong cues that a retest of all-time highs could be on the cards and even a venture beyond.

“Bitcoin is on the cusp of beginning Price Discovery Uptrend 2,” Rekt Capital stated at the time.

Price thus returned to a trading range only recently reclaimed during a week in which bulls enjoyed gains of 9.9%.

As Cointelegraph reported, BTC price targets already included $150,000 and higher during June.

CPI week dawns with uncertainty “everywhere”

Another crunch macroeconomic data week for risk-asset traders makes for a potentially volatile environment for Bitcoin and altcoins.

Two key inflation markers, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) print for April, are due in the coming days.

At the same time, markets are on edge over US trade policy, with news of a deal with China sparking flash moves in crypto over the weekend.

“We have yet to receive a statement from Trump directly on the US-China trade deal,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter noted in part of ongoing X coverage. 

“This explains why markets are only up ~1.3% on this otherwise massively bullish news. Uncertainty is still everywhere.”

Kobeissi added that retail earnings reports could also shape market performance over the coming week.

Continuing, trading firm Mosaic Asset argued that trade news aside, risk assets lacked bullish impetus thanks to an ongoing hawkish policy stance from the US Federal Reserve and Chair Jerome Powell. 

The Fed left interest rates unchanged at its meeting last week, with markets increasingly pricing out a cut before July.

“While there is some easing of tensions on the trade front, the latest interest rate setting meeting by the Federal Reserve isn’t delivering any bullish catalysts,” Mosaic Asset wrote in the latest edition of its regular newsletter, “The Market Mosaic.”

“Despite capital market volatility this year, Fed Chair Powell reiterated his message that the Fed can take a ‘wait and see’ approach to how tariffs are impacting the economy and inflation.”

The latest data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool puts the chance of a rate cut in June at under 15%, while the Fed’s July meeting attracts around 50% odds.

Euphoria vs. “smart distribution”

The proportion of the Bitcoin supply held in profit has reached more than 98% — something barely seen before, new research says.

In one of its “Quicktake” blog posts on May 11, onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant examined whether the Bitcoin investor base was inclined to “smart distribution” at current levels.

“When BTC's supply in loss drops to between 0–2%, it typically coincides with late-stage bull runs,” contributor Kripto Mevsimi summarized. 

“As shown in the chart, these moments cluster near macro tops — a zone often characterized by overconfidence.”

The post added that long-term holders — those hodling for at least six months — may see the return to six figures as a suitable opportunity to reduce BTC exposure. Newcomers and speculators, on the other hand, may only now be planning an entry.

“With nearly all BTC holders in profit, distribution risk increases. Long-term holders may see these conditions as a signal to derisk, especially with BTC near all-time highs,” Kripto Mevsimi continued. 

“Meanwhile, newer entrants could interpret this strength as confirmation to chase, creating a potential sentiment mismatch.”

Last week, research nonetheless suggested that buy-side and sell-side pressure was broadly balanced, with the implication that Bitcoin could continue moving higher without a significant rush to the exit.

Mainstream retail ignores $104,000 Bitcoin

In an interesting development — one potentially supporting sustained BTC price upside — the market is less “greedy” at $104,000 than it was when Bitcoin traded more than 10% lower.

Related: Ethereum chart pattern supports ‘moon shot’ rally to new price highs if confirmed — Trader

The latest data from the Crypto Fear & Greed Index shows that while “greed” does characterize the general mood, the initial push to $94,000 on April 23 delivered higher readings.

Fear & Greed measured 70/100 on May 12, while on April 23 it reached 72/100, just inches from “extreme greed” territory.

Lower levels of greed in the face of higher prices could potentially signal more sustainable price growth as investors resist the urge to act erratically.

Analyzing Google Trends volumes for “Bitcoin” in particular, market commentators have come to similar conclusions.

Despite being close to new all-time highs, Bitcoin is still not attracting significant mainstream retail interest.

Google Trends searches for Bitcoin indicate that $BTC is no longer a retail game.

Which confirms my theory as to why CT isn't crazy about a 100k $BTC.

Graphic: @invest_answers pic.twitter.com/R56JjQpZXa— Westy