Fears of another narco-state rise as Latin American country readies for pivotal vote

Ecuadorians go to the polls today in a runoff election between incumbent President Daniel Noboa and leftist challenger Luisa González. Noboa is seen as a pro-Trump conservative, while González is viewed as an ideological ally of Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro.

Noboa refused to recognize Maduro as the legitimate president of Venezuela after his staged 2024 election and is also committed to fighting criminal gangs with all available resources to restore peace and security in Ecuador. 

It's expected González will follow in the footsteps of her mentor, former president Rafael Correa, and seek stronger ties with Latin America’s leftist governments of Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silval, Gustavo Petro of Colombia and Gabriel Boric of Chile.

"Security has been his principal mandate as the president of Ecuador. He’s dedicated a lot of time, effort and resources to deal with the security situation," Joseph Humire, executive director of the Center for a Secure Free Society and senior fellow of the America First Policy Institute, told Fox News Digital. 

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"However, there’s been only marginal improvements in the security situation, and it’s compounded with other problems," Humire added.

González is running on a platform calling for an increase in the military’s role in fighting gang violence but also strongly condemns excessive use of force and abuse of human rights.

She "appears to have a softer perspective on the issue of crime, meaning she has not stated her willingness to chase drug cartels but, most probably, would intend to negotiate with them," Mathias Valdez Duffau, visiting fellow at the Center for International Studies at Catholic University of Argentina, told Fox News Digital.

Valdez Duffao said a policy of negotiation is similar to the policy of former President Correa’s administration and would focus on whole-of-government crime reduction approaches that would look to integrate criminal gangs into civil society. 

"The reality is that negotiating with criminal gangs might give the government a short-term space to maneuver, but the gangs become stronger and end up co-opting government officials, which eventually leads the country to the brink of becoming a narco-state," ValdezDuffao warned.

Violence and insecurity remain at the top of voters’ minds. Ecuador has the highest murder rate in Latin America, with 6,986 recorded homicides in 2024, making it the second most violent year in Ecuador’s history. Some 95,000 people fled the country in 2024 as many communities became focal points of turf wars between rival gangs competing for territory. 

President Noboa declared an internal armed conflict in 2024 and ordered the armed forces to carry out military operations to neutralize various transnational organized crime groups. The anti-crime initiative saw an increase in the military’s presence in prisons and communities across the country. 

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Noboa also called for the international community to provide military assistance and suggested the U.S. army could work with Ecuador to combat violent gangs.

Despite the president’s hardline position on crime, January 2025 was Ecuador’s most violent month in recent history, with 781 people killed. Noboa partnered with Erik Prince, founder of the private security firm Blackwater, and formed a strategic alliance in March to strengthen Ecuador’s ability to fight narcoterrorism.

InSight Crime, a nonprofit focusing on organized crime and security in the Americas, reports that Ecuador is one of the region’s "most significant drug trafficking hubs" and ships cocaine from Peru and Colombia to Central America, Mexico and Europe. Many of these drug trafficking organizations working through local proxies and other criminal groups have infiltrated the prison system and expanded its network of street gangs. 

The various groups operating throughout Ecuadorian society and within the prison system work with domestic and international drug traffickers, including the Sinaloa Cartel, considered one of the most powerful drug trafficking organizations in the world and responsible for a large amount of fentanyl trafficked into the U.S., according to the Department of Justice. 

President Noboa and González each received around 44% of the vote in the first round of the election. González is the leader of Citizen Revolution and is considered the heir of former President Correa. She's also looking to become the first female president of Ecuador. If she wins, Ecuador could see a return to the leftist economic policies of the Correa presidency.

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Whoever wins in the second round will have to contend with an evenly divided National Assembly split between both parties, making legislation to solve the country’s endemic violence and economic problems even more difficult.

Saúl Medina, a former governor of Tungurahua, told Fox News Digital that, after the electoral cycle, a comprehensive and determined strategy to combat gang violence must be enacted. 

Two of the most important issues that must be addressed, according to Medina, are strengthening institutions and executing better oversight of the police and justice system to root out corruption, and prison reform.

"Prisons must stop being operational centers for gangs," Medina added.

Valdez Duffao, Humire and other experts on Latin America agreed Noboa has ingratiated himself with President Trump. They are ideologically similar and, should Noboa win, it could put him in a better position to address the country’s endemic violence.